Will this turning point be good or bad for Syria?

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In my opinion, Syria’s turning point- the deposing of the brutal Assad regime by the Islamic rebel group HTS- creates the chance of a brighter future for Syrians and the opportunity to create a new civil Syrian state governed by a group that represents and protects all different ethnic groups and peoples across the country. I think that this turning point will improve Syria in the long term, but at the same time, the situation has the possibility to descend into violence and chaos.

Firstly, at the time of writing, there has been no clear evidence of large-scale discrimination, authoritarianism or abuse of power by the current government. Going off current form, the rebel forces have treated different ethnic groups with respect, as reported by members of the Christian community in Syrian cities such as Aleppo. After a Christmas tree was burned down in December, the government claimed to have arrested the perpetrators and condemned the attack. Leaders of HTS have repeatedly called for ‘unity’ and members from the rebel groups have told western newspapers, “we entered all the Syrian provinces and cities, and in those cities they have seen nothing but kind words and good treatment from us and we have seen nothing but kind words and good treatment from them.” Whether these promises and treatment continue is yet to be seen, but so far HTS has set a good precedent for whoever takes control of the country in the future. Despite this, worries still remain, as HTS have previously been accused of arresting critics and cracking down on minorities in areas they controlled before they deposed Assad. For peace and democracy to prevail, HTS will need to stay away from justifying any part of these claims. And also, as an Islamic group, HTS will have to be cautious to stay away from extreme fundamentalists, and provide equal rights and treatment to both women and men, and stay away from the route of Afghanistan and the Taliban.

Another point is that anything the new regime brings would surely be better than the Assad regime. During the family’s 53 year long rule, many atrocities were committed against the Syrian people. An Amnesty International report found evidence of killings, torture, enforced disappearance, mass hangings and extermination of detainees in the Saydnaya military prison, and over 5 million Syrians have had to flee their country due to persecution or the civil war that prevailed from 2011-2024 after Bashar al Assad’s forces ruthlessly cracked down on peaceful pro-democratic marches. Therefore, in the eyes of many, merely the fall of Assad is cause to celebrate, and surely, it couldn’t get worse than an absolute dictatorship guilty for the murder of tens of thousands of people, from the young to the elderly, often for nothing much more than reporting on the regime or attending rallies or protests against the government. So overall, anything positive the regime brings is a huge improvement compared to the oppression of Assad.

Finally, the new interim government has promised future elections and therefore their dedication to a better and fairer future for the country. After the overthrow of Bashar al Assad, Ahmed al-Sharaa promised to hold elections, but said that it could take up to four years before they are ready to take place. In the meantime, though, the interim government held a dialogue conference with over 600 delegates, focused on providing suggestions on the economy, transitional justice, transitional government and the new constitution. While this isn’t an election, it is baby steps towards creating a state that cares for and represents all of its citizens. However, problems still remain regarding the representation of all Syrians. The north east of the country is controlled by Kurdish militants, who desire a separate Kurdish

country after decades of brutal oppression across the Middle East. As they refused to give up arms, HTS did not invite them to the conference, leading to Kurdish representatives to state that, “the exclusion of the SDF (a Kurdish rebel group) and large sections of Syrian society confirm that the conference serves to please the outside world and not to seek a better future" and calls for all groups to be involved in discussions.

Overall, at this pivotal turning point for Syria, steps towards democracy and inclusion need to be taken to ensure that the country becomes a safe place for all to occupy. This opportunity to rebuild Syria’s future must be seized to create a civil state providing security and democracy for all Syrians.